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Complexity in the supply chain and assortment in distribution - reason for auto dealer woes ?

A Chrysler dealer providing testimony to the Senate Committee  reminded me what complexity does to not only the upstream supply chain but really makes things difficult to manage in the downstream distribution channel.Supply chain complexity (too many suppliers, too many different parts, too many color options) is a nightmare for supply chain managers and supply managers spend a lot of efffort in trying to consolidate supplies and suppliers.

On the customer side of a business though, marketing managers love offering something to every segment of the market. All the offerings on the market side are called "assortment." Businesses start  a new product line based on good market prospects. The distribution side then builds up with more dealers,more marketing and service support,service training,aftermarket spare parts and so on. Unfortunately, there is no manager standing in the showroom end and looking backward at all this "complexity" - at the showroom managers are happily showing the assortment to prospects !

Closing product lines or product deletion is a complex activity, that does not bring glory to the marketing manager. Consequently, it does'nt get done till there is a crisis as currently, as  in US Auto.

MBA lessons from GM Bankruptcy

MBA classrooms across the world will reverberate with lessons from the GM Bankruptcy for future MBA's. Strangely though,since MBA's starting working for GM  in the 1970's the lessons were already there!  For example, MBA's  in the seventies knew that moving with changing customer needs was  the simplest way to win. But fuel efficiency and smaller cars was a "no-no" for Detroit. Important stakeholders like the Unions clung on to expensive health and retirement as the sun set on US auto as the world literally turned and changed.

As an industry old timer told me, it was plain arrogance, complacency and the unwillingness of managers to speak up,in time. It was easier to deride the Japanese automakers ( ha imports) rather than emulate them, at least in part.

On the labor front the UAW is reduced to   a shadow of its old belligerent self.  This probably gives no pleasure to retired auto managers who were given such a hard time when they wanted to change things when there still was time.

This blog has been talking about the US auto industry for some years but academics have been writing about key problems for decades. US Auto is forever changed - the question is -will managers really learn in other industries?

New Business Model for Music Industry needs new ways of capturing value

First record stores were closing in the US as everyone wanted to download music.The record stores were affected as distribution moved online with iTunes selling millions of downloads. The music recording industry was kind of okay with this as they still had a method of capturing value or monetizing their efforts of promoting artists and marketing music. But that was in the US.

It turns out that in China most music ( over 99%) is simply acquired free ,violating copyright laws and disabling the music industry from capturing value. Google in China is offering free music downloads and hoping that AdWords will help capture some tiny piece of value through ad revenues. This ad revenue will be shared by the music industry and Google. In other words, music companies have given up on trying to implement the US business model in China.

Musicians and artists I suppose love all of this as their music gets exposure and anyway they did not make big money in the traditional model where record companies,distributors and retailers made most of the margins and customers had to pay. This industry is sort of different because the musicians work primarily on the premise of "live to work" rather than "work to live" in sectors like banking and auto which seems to be having trouble in recent times.In fact,bankers are leaving banking (they don't love banking ?) given the cut back on bonuses.

The restructuring of the music industry in China  should spread to the US in due course and dis-intermediation of the distribution channels and record companies will create interesting opportunities. You can be sure that musicians and artists will proliferate and new ways of "capturing" value will have to be built.

Global Bailouts as Jon Stewart supports US Auto Bailout

Guess what ? Governments in countries all over the world are jumping onto the "we must bailout" bandwagon. There are European, Chinese,Indian and Latin American bailouts in progress of different industries. Global government bailout actions include adjusting interest rates, lowering gas prices,direct funding  and so  on.  A strange and new facet of globalization.

We have the choice of crying over the "bailout" requests by many sectors of the US economy but Jon Stewart had a point last night that made me smile. He said that Congress was much harder on the automakers for 34B$ (up from 25 B$) compared to the 700B$ for the banking and finance sector. The auto industry at least has a product to deliver, that we may complain about, but the banking and finance folks got into trouble with products that turned out to be  fictitious!  Moreover, the banking and finance issues are  difficult and preposterous for even finance folks to understand or explain. Just because we understand the auto business more than the finance business, does'nt mean that we have to be harder on them. Jon Stewart recommends that we give the auto industry their bailout !

Auto Industry Bailout next week ?

This blog discussed over two years ago how the US Auto industry has been ignoring the very research they funded and supported for decades.  These studies had clearly identified better supplier relations,more innovation and customer focus  as priority areas. Just handing out money is probably not going to change things  with the auto industry  leadership at Detroit. When they have successfully ignored consultants,researchers and professors for decades, it seems very unlikely that mere exhortations with bailout money will work.  In fact, unless there are decisive management changes, it is very unlikely that entrenched managers would change their ways.

Estimates of job losses in the upstream supply chain and the downstream distribution (dealer) channel are so immense that some solution must be found. When managers and company leaders neither manage nor lead-  they can bring ruin to their entire value chain partners and associated  stakeholders. In the auto industry that number could be as high as three million jobs lost. Clearly,  just too much is at stake.

700 or 2% of US car dealers may close- but could there still be light for US Auto?

With all the turmoil in financial markets the troubled US auto industry seems to be on the verge of total collapse.  700 dealers might close because customers can't get finance as Ford and GM stock touched a57 year low.

All may not be lost for US auto as the GM-Chrysler deal might promote receiving some federal funding to re-tool. On the distribution side with the closing distributorships I was cheered to read some comments here . According to these comments most if not all these 700 dealers will be US Auto dealers and not import dealers. These auto dealers are ones with large product lines,little differentiation among offerings and too much territory squeeze much like McDonald franchises who might wake up to find another McDonald just across the road and much more competition.

If this is indeed true for US auto distributors then there might be streamlining of the distribution channels and remaining dealers might become more healthy when the credit situation improves.

I tried comparing the "locate" the dealer feature for "Chevy" on the GM website and the locate a dealer for Toyota.Toyota offers one dealer when you search by ZIP code after which you have to dig deeper for more dealers.On the other hand, GM starts with 3 dealers on the first page and offers 3-4 pages of dealers. Too much choice for lesser numbers of cars sold and probably too many dealers.

Seems similar to the US auto upstream supplier policy of having many component suppliers who have a hard time turning a decent profit. Here downstream distributors seem to also have too much "internal" competition to turn in good profits. The situation is off course much more difficult in tough economic times.

More auto plants close as gas prices rise

GM, Ford and Chrysler have announced plant closures in Wisconsin,Georgia,Virginia, Minnesota. These are not poor performing plants but highly efficient ones. It's just that skyrocketing gas prices has made driving around difficult and driving around in gas guzzling SUV's even more economically difficult and socially embarrassing.

But as Governor Jim Doyle mentioned if the plant is efficient and world class, is that not an advantage for the auto company? Small cars are booming and surely re-tooling the plants are possible? Why is it so difficult to change product mixes in the auto industry? I guess it is just that no one thought that "flexible" manufacturing was required in the days of low cost gas prices. This was a case of making contingency plans for the product life cycle for SUV's .Now it's just too costly to switch gears ( alas an auto metaphor) and many communities must suffer.

Tata Nano and now Tata Jaguar and Land Rover

Tata had announced the $2500 Nano Car (left with Chairman Ratan Tata)  to much applause. There are no dearth of buyers at this price point in Asia,Eastern Europe, Africa and Latin America . But have you ever heard of a company operating at both ends of the market ? In fact, the Tata's have created the entire possibility of a $2500 car and now they are buying the Jaguar and Land Rover. The Nano is for the "Bottom of the Pyramid" while the Jaguar starting at $50,000 ( or 100 times the Nano) is for the super-rich. Are they capable of operating at both ends of the the market? Yes, I think so having worked with Tatas' as customers for several years. They are  great employers  with a  history  of  caring for employees,customers,suppliers and stakeholders far ahead of their location (India) and  times. Luckily, the Jaguar and Land Rover Union does not have to worry about jobs as this report suggests. Also, if Ford can focus on its core brands and turn things around, the auto industry will see better times.

Michigan Auto Industry is changing

Somehow Michigan fascinates me for its auto industry and what it has given to the study of management,innovation and the wrong way to manage buyer seller relationships. When I heard on the radio about the leading rate of job losses and foreclosures in Michigan, I felt bad for the folks in Michigan. But this may be changing......

The news report that "suppliers learn collaboration and innovation" gave me hope. However, it is not the suppliers who need to learn collaboration but the auto industry who need to. In fact this blog has commented on the difference between US and Japanese auto and the long but vain scholarly research that has brought this out to an unresponsive auto sector.

But now, suppliers are no longer willing to cut prices to oblivion but are diversifying their customer portfolio and are not totally depending on the Auto industry but trying out opportunities in office furniture,food and appliance where a reverse auction type of mentality has started changing several years ago. Now the auto industry is changing, rationalizing the supply base and becoming more collaborative and driving innovation with its suppliers. I was particularly impressed with the take of Amerikam CEO Stephanie Leonardos on how long and painful this realization has been for Michigan Auto. But read the last few paragraphs of the interview here.

You don't repeat reverse auctions!

Reverse auctions are controversial. Suppliers bid their lowest rates on-line and prices keep going down and the buyer's organization is happy. Inefficiencies in the supply chain reduce, transparency increases and suppliers are on their toes. Sounds not very collaborative and that's what I had though so far till I went yesterday to the CAPM Seminar "Sourcing the Pfizer Way".

The seminar was held at the Global R&D center of  Pfizer,Groton  and was kindly organized by Mary Kachinsky of Pfizer and participants learned a great deal  about sourcing particularly  in a knowledge intensive environment where all your internal clients are highly qualified  scientists and physicians involved in drug discovery.

I had missed Sam Dowell's great presentation at NECON 2007 where I had presented as well. The "aha" moment came for me, when I realized (after a question) that you don't repeat reverse auctions. You do them initially to rationalize your supply base and also when you are checking out overseas suppliers for price. You invite bidders after a thorough pre-screening and always invite several suppliers in multi-country reverse auctions so that there is enough "same country" competition. And most important, you do not necessarily go with the lowest bidder and make that very clear, upfront. But once you decide suppliers you try to make the relationship work ...