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MBA lessons from GM Bankruptcy

MBA classrooms across the world will reverberate with lessons from the GM Bankruptcy for future MBA's. Strangely though,since MBA's starting working for GM  in the 1970's the lessons were already there!  For example, MBA's  in the seventies knew that moving with changing customer needs was  the simplest way to win. But fuel efficiency and smaller cars was a "no-no" for Detroit. Important stakeholders like the Unions clung on to expensive health and retirement as the sun set on US auto as the world literally turned and changed.

As an industry old timer told me, it was plain arrogance, complacency and the unwillingness of managers to speak up,in time. It was easier to deride the Japanese automakers ( ha imports) rather than emulate them, at least in part.

On the labor front the UAW is reduced to   a shadow of its old belligerent self.  This probably gives no pleasure to retired auto managers who were given such a hard time when they wanted to change things when there still was time.

This blog has been talking about the US auto industry for some years but academics have been writing about key problems for decades. US Auto is forever changed - the question is -will managers really learn in other industries?

Managing outsourcing - in tough times upcoming ISM Workshop

I am scheduled to speak at the 94th ISM conference on Monday, May 4 and the brief of the talk entitled " You have a  Great Global Outsourcing Contract- Now What? - Managing Transition Issues in Global Outsourcing" posted on the Institute for Supply Management website  is here.

As markets slow down cost cutting through outsourcing continues to be a priority in organizations. Both outsourcers and providers need to do a better job in managing outsourcing transitions so that innovation is accelerated and everyone emerges stronger from the recession.

I am also planning to add some ideas to my presentation about dealing with existing contracts so that innovation is "retrofitted" to existing relationships. Crucial for these tough times.

"Animal Spirits" by Robert Shiller- time to look across disciplines

 "Animal Spirits"  is a new book by Robert Shiller and George Akerlof. It's sort of interesting that Shiller  an Economist, refers to Psychology pretty often in this video from McKinsey and also throws in Sociology and Political Science in the context of the current "fear" among both businesses and customers. It's sort of interesting that Schiller does not talk about business disciplines at all in the video but I hope does talk about in the book. For example ,Marketing ( an academic discipline that explicitly recognizes economics and psychology as "mother" disciplines) , Management (which draws a great deal from Sociology and informs Operations that studies Supply Chain) and Innovation (which is a lot about "Spirit" the human kind!). The fact is that Economics is a dominant discipline and has an annual Nobel Prize while no other liberal arts or business disipline does. Globally economists have powerful influence  on public policy. And sadly, Econometric models without behavioral variables are unable to explain the current fear in the market as Schiller says. Time to look across disciplines !

Small Business, Google AdWords and B2B Marketing in a recession

If you think about it, most jobs,innovation and entrepreneurship is in the small sector. Strangely textbooks and academic work in  B2B,Supply Chain and Innovation focuses on large organizations- perhaps because large organizations are potential employers for students who read textbooks  and have been traditionally employed by large organizations. The current economic situation has many major organizations in disarray with employment being uncertain for existing managers and on hold for fresh recruits.

Students at my B2B (Organizational) Marketing class at University of New Haven are participating in the Google Online Marketing Challenge (GOMCHA). They have a presentation scheduled on April 8, Wednesday and the University announcement is here.

The students have been doing a great job and have focused on creating AdWords for B2B marketing in a recession for the seven area businesses. Google AdWords puts power in the hands of a small business who can start with a very small budget- unlike other traditional advertising. The GOMCHA itself is supported by Google who have given $200 of ad credit to each student team.Students add the Internet Marketing expertise to their resumes and I think several of them will become entrepreneurs. The student chapter of the American Marketing Association is managing the event.

Managing risks, actuaries and lessons from AIG- where was the human factor?

Actuarial sciences are primarily mathematical and depend on past data. Since there was no past data the risk of insuring the mortgage-backed securities was underestimated. AIG insured banks for the securities they bought and these debt swaps were an unknown collection of mortgages- some of whom were simply bad loans.

It is not yet clear as to what happened to the human factor in all of this. Maybe the insurance piece was handled from London and there was no real understanding of what was happening on the ground in the US as AIG went on taking on balooning risks. For example, several years ago someone mentioned about a real estate agent he knew who just collected her 6% commission on a home sale being totally uncertain as to how the buyer was going to pay the mortgage. This kind of information was available and discussed accross communities in America as the AIG crisis was building up.

The buyer,seller, real estate agents, real estate closing lawyer, the bank's lawyer in every now defaulting loan closing day would have had a sense of the dubious nature of the loan. Why did not the risk guys at AIG pick it up? Or did they -and nobody listened? 

Banks know that there is risk  and that is why they buy insurance and that is why AIG is paying up and US tax payers have to foot the bill of this now enormous risk.

Going forward, business will have to re-examine their methods of gathering not just past data but new data that is readily available but in this case had not been built into the actuarial models. Raw numbers and technology cannot replace the human factor where human, qualitative real time input must be sought from the ground to get a better sense of the real risks.

Supply Chains and Distribution Channels (B2B) really don't talk to each other

The recent IBM Study points out that visibility and risk are important concerns of supply chain managers. The summary of the report  suggests that companies seem to be more in touch with their suppliers than their customers when it comes to aligning supply with demand. More bluntly the buy side and the sell side have little clue about what's developing on either side of the firm's value chain.

The stark differences in orientation,training and lack of communication between the market end of a company (the B2B end or distribution end) and its back end supply chain function is intriguing. There was a time when these functions were combined together as a "commercial" function which went out of fashion in the late eighties and business school academia,consulting companies and companies themselves pigeon holed sales, marketing and distribution in one bunch and the the supply chain,materials,logistics and procurement as another bunch of functions. If the CEO did'nt actively promote the communication and co-operation between these functions - you landed up with things like the mortgage mess. Those coming up with derivatives never really needed to understand the different types of mortgages that were actually being given out.

ERP systems and particularly Web 2.0 applications will hopefully help better co-ordination in organizations and till they  kick in - some old fashioned "talking" between the marketing and supply functions should help keep the value chain straight.

From Culture's Consequences to "Project Match" - IBM needs to add home country fixed costs

IBM has come up with a rather controversial "Project Match" offer for laid off employees to work in "growth" markets in India, Nigeria, Eastern Europe etc. IBM is telling its laid off employees to look at opportunities in the IBM subsidiaries where the local market is growing. The catch is that you get paid the local salary which might be just 20% of the current home salary.

If your job is outsourced then the logic seems to be to  move you to the "source".

While IBM's idea seems blasphemous to a high cost country employee- it tells us something about the full circle that globalization has come to. In the 1980's IBM was perplexed as to why various subsidiaries understood and implemented "central commands" so differently. So the now famous Geert Hofstede was commissioned to figure out why this was so. Hofstede came up with culture's consequences and changed the way we look at national culture and its impact on work at subsidiaries of an MNC.

Today, what would a laid off IBM-US employee do with his/her kids college expenses and 401K and mortgage  if they took a job at 20% salary ? IBM and other multinationals need to look at the possibility of covering some of these "fixed" costs if the idea is to work.

But if you have an expat offer (which takes care of these costs) and have not yet been laid off - this is the time to take it up!

What types of B2B and Supply Chain jobs will the stimulus package create ?

I have been trying to figure out the kind of opportunities that might come up from the stimulus package - particularly in the B2B  and Supply Chain  areas. I think there will be plenty of opportunities in these areas if you start looking at what the stimulus is planning to do. For example, in the procurement space as towns and communities start re-building infrastructure purchasing skills should be in demand. Now the question is whether ongoing contracts will be expanded i.e. existing contractors will be given more work and they would hire or there might be more new contractors entering the infrastructure. A friend in the purchasing community thinks that new bids will have to be prepared, in record time, but there may not be new supply management jobs in the public sector, although some additional hands may be needed to develop and execute the contracting of all this work. If you are a professional looking for work  in these areas checking with the local Government- may be a good idea.

Then there is the construction supply chain ( I was recently reviewing this literature for an academic paper review ) and herein lies an opportunity for all those sub-contractors out there. They should really start gearing up their B2B marketing with both towns and well established contractors so that they are ready to execute projects. There are a whole lot of displaced professionals (IT , finance)  who have taken up temporary work like painting etc. and this is the time to put your name out there and start lining up your work force.

The stimulus funds would probably be spent at the town level and there is some talk of a deadline of spending the money say within one year and this calls for a  speedy effective local project selection ( which school to renovate  ? - probably a separate blog on this ), contractor and subcontractor selection and off course the direct workers on these projects.  Probably discussion will move to execution aspects of the stimulus as we move forward.....

What can suppliers learn from job seekers and job keepers ? Understanding "value" contribution

Given the economic slowdown the media is full of advice and tips for individual job seekers  as well as "job keepers". 

Just like individuals, suppliers in all value chains (everyone is a supplier- remember!) need to examine if they can keep their "job" with existing clients and seek "new" clients. The key question to answer here is what exact value you provide to your supplier's business. Research has shown that, at least in good times, suppliers become complacent and even arrogant.  For example,with brisk business, suppliers would not even consider delivery and would like the customer to "pick-up".  Naturally, with such an attitude you are completely clueless about what exact value you provide to your customer.

Just trying to understand what exact value your business  brings  to your customer's business is a worthwhile activity in such slow times. Very similar to individuals taking time to educate themselves and become more competent in the job market.

Will Budweiser change?

The news that InBev has taken over Anheuser-Busch for $52 billion is a major event for both marketing and the supply chain.Although,initial reports suggest that the big benefit of the merger is the enormous brand power and marketing muscle  of "Bud" in the US market,it seems likely that the new management will review  some of the traditional advertising  that Budweiser has been known for.Also,a focus of the American entity will be to cut supply chain costs by $1.6 Billion.

College classrooms will suddenly find the enormous marketing teaching material developed around the "Budweiser" brand outdated. Marketing clubs routinely discuss the Superbowl ads, dominated by "Bud" and things may change there as well.Similarly the famous supply chain beer game will probably need some reworking.

In fact, the merger will throw up enormous opportunity and challenges,not only for the merged entity but entire armies of consultants,speakers,professors and students will suddenly have to take a fresh look at global alliances, in this case a merger, and it's impact on something we assumed would never change viz. Budweiser and it's larger than life dominance in the American psyche.

For starters, consider the InBev website's brand section that asks you your country of residence and date of birth while the Anheuser-Busch website asks you if you are over 21 and simply assumes US residence. All this will start changing as "Bud" becomes truly global.Similarly, before making any marketing changes in a great marketing formula, the new A-B-InBev organization should sure tread carefully lest we have one more "New Coke."